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     Hitting the Wall
Stockwell Day is banging his head against the Ontario border
{ Shane Mills                       seven years and expects the Liberal incumbei
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 By Shane Mills
 It was the reason for creating the Canadian Alliance, it was the rationale behind pushing the founder of the party out of the leadership and it was going to be the axe that chopped down the great wall of Ontario. “It” was the rise of Stockwell Day from treasurer of Alberta to the only leader given any chance to unseat Jean Chretien as the prime minister.
   But Mr. Day seems to have hit a wall, unable to break out in Ontario and claim the seats the Alliance needs to end the reign of the ‘natural governing party.’
   The most recent polls show the Liberal lead firming up.
 Polling conducted by Ekos Research shows support for the Grits firming up, as the party sits at 44.6 per cent and the Alliance trailing at 25.6 per cent. Those numbers get worse in Ontario for the Alliance, as the Liberals lead 54 to 24.
   “The Liberal lead, we think, is pretty close to insurmountable at this time,” says Ekos president Frank Graves.
 “It looks very much like it will be a majority government.”
   And it is not just the vote rich area around Toronto, where pollsters predict all 41 seats will be coloured red, that Mr. Day appears to be suffering — even the more rural parts of the province seem immune to his message.
   “I wrote a piece recently where I said he was ‘downright scary’ and there wasn’t one comment,” says Wayne Major, who is the editor of the Northern Times in Kapuskas-ing. “Usually you get some reaction, but there was nothing this time.”
   A forestry town, featuring a pulp mill as the main employer, Kapuskasing shares many traits with northern B.C. “Gun control is an issue and basically it’s the only thing they are able to hang their hat on,” says Mr. Major.
   When the election was called, many pundits suggested it was done to catch Stockwell Day off-guard and take advantage of his inexperience and lack of familiarty with Canadian voters. That thought, with eight days left in the campaign, is echoed by Mr. Major. “He comes across as a guy who tries too hard. I don’t know about you, but when I see a guy that smooth I automatically think he’s trying to hide something.”
   Eight hours south of Kapuskasing sits the riding of Barrie-Simcoe-Bradford, where the city of Barrie is the largest centre. One could
Stockwell Day is leading, but in Ontario, at least, no one seems to be following.
 forgive Alliance strategists if they look with anticipation to this riding, after all this is the only riding to ever vote Reform in Ontario. Back in 1993, Ed Harper captured the seat but the former alderman and small businessman didn’t seek re-election and the seat went Liberal. “(He) probably could have won,” says John Devine, editor of the Barrie Advance. “But that had more to do with Ed. It was one of those rare situations where people voted for the local member not the party.”
                                                                                                                            But Mr. Devine notes the demographics of the riding have changed considerably in the past
seven years and expects the Liberal incumbent to get re-elected. Part of the problem for the Alliance, he suggests, is that Ontario voters are fiscally conservative and socially moderate.
“There is a perception that they are very dogmatic and I don’t think they can rally from that,” he says, noting that a hardline towards Quebec and a desire to weaken the federal government don’t play well in the centre of the country.
And the other problem relates to Mr. Day, where concern over his social conservatism remains a big issue. “I’ve heard more talk about his beliefs than I ever head about Preston Manning’s.”
And while the perception of Jean Chretien as arrogrant continues to grow, Mr. Devine says voters appear willing to re-elect him, with the thought the prime minister won’t serve out his term and Paul Martin will take the reins of power.
In the southwest portion of Ontario sits St. Mary’s, an argiculu-tral community that should be fertile ground for the Alliance based on success in the west. But Laura Payton of the St. Mary Journal Argus says it isn’t happening.
“I think they’re kind of losing ground,” she says. “Little things keep popping up and he puts his foot into it over different things.”
There is Alliance support in the riding, which has been visted by Mr. Day once with another visit expected this weekend, but Ms. Payton notes the Progressive Conservatives remain a force.
“Joe Clark’s been here once and he’s supposed to come back, so they wouldn’t be here if they didn’t think they could win it.”
She agrees with Mr. Devine’s ass-esment that voters tend to be social moderates and that Stockwell Day is not winning over enough converts. “I don’t see any huge momentum building.”
Around the nation’s capital, in Orleans, Fred Scherwin laughs and replies “Good luck” when asked if the Alliance will have an Ontario breakthrough.
If it happens, it won’t be in this territory. “This area is about as red as it gets,” says Mr. Scherwin, who is editor of the Orelans Star. “No other party stands a chance.”
    He lists off some MPs in the area, who include cabinet ministers. Don Boudria and John Manley.
    And while he believes the newness of Stock-well Day, along with the controversy over his creationist beliefs, is holding back the Alliance this time out, Mr. Scherwin holds out some hope for the party. “I don’t think they’re ready this time. But I can see the death of the Conservatives after this election and maybe even the death of the NDP in the election after that.
    "So I can see the Alliance doing much better in the next election.”